Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCBUhQ6jJoM

Monetary policy
1. M2 up 25% YoY, velocity of money is falling
  1. Two reasons why velocity might stop, and becomes overdrive
    1. (Good reason) Confidence in economy (business and consumers) are rising very high, not all time high yet
    2. (Not a good reason) When inflation and interest rate goes up, velocity of money can go up too; we don’t think about inflation will be a problem
Fiscal policy
1. Fiscal policy package will occur
2. Election
  1. Some degree of gridlock situation
    1. The republican will hold majority in senate
    2. In the house more republicans have won than anticipated
  2. Republicans might bring along some democrats to their view
    1. A little better than gridlock in policy making
    2. Still more conservative than expected
Economy
1. Inventory starts building again
2. Expect an extremely strong holiday season
  1. JPM credit card payment +15% YoY on Black Friday long weekend
  2. S&P 500 average for September +9%
    1. Retail usually follows
3. 12/4 Employment report
  1. Weaker than expected
  2. Household employment was down
  3. Tech is flat, maybe due to productivity improvement
  4. Significant drop in manufacture
    1. Can be explained by inventory going up
  5. Average week earnings YoY Growth rate accelerated
  6. Saving rate dropped but is still high by historical standards
4. Durable goods report reinforces surging of capital spending
Market
1. Copper broke out relative to gold
  1. Market cycle signals
2. 10 year treasury bonds rate might increase
  1. Would hurt fixed income investors
  2. Not problematic for equity investors
    1. Shift from fixed income to equity is still long overdue
3. Continued outflows of equity, inflows of fixed income, $1.2T difference in between
  1. A signal of no bubble in equity
  2. Until a shifting of flows between fixed income and equity
4. Individual investors (AAII) indexes are very high
  1. Maybe a signal of some sort of correction